Extreme cold so far this year, however, has already forced energy firms to pull huge amounts of gas out of storage, including record amounts in January, cutting stockpiles to around 12% below the five-year (2020-2024) usual.

Front-month gas futures for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 4.8 cents, or 1.2%, to $3.886 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 7:50 a.m. EST (1250 GMT), putting the contract on track for its lowest close since February 14.

For the week, the front-month was down about 8% after rising around 39% during the prior three weeks.

For the month, the contract was up 28% after falling about 16% in January.

The small price decline on Friday came despite record gas flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Financial company LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to 104.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in February from 102.7 bcfd in January, when freezing oil and gas wells and pipes, known as freeze-offs, cut production. That compares with a monthly record of 104.6 bcfd in December 2023.

Over the last few weeks, output dropped from a record daily high of 106.7 bcfd on February 6 to a three-week low of 100.5 bcfd on February 19 as extreme cold froze wells before rising to a three-week high of 106.3 bcfd on February 28 as milder weather unfroze those wells.

Meteorologists projected weather in the Lower 48 states would remain mostly warmer than normal through March 15.

With milder weather coming, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, will fall from 125.7 bcfd this week to 117.7 bcfd next week and 114.0 bcfd in two weeks.

The amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 15.6 bcfd so far in February, up from 14.6 bcfd in January. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023.

That LNG feedgas increase mostly came as gas flows to Venture Global’s 3.2-bcfd Plaquemines LNG export plant under construction in Louisiana hit a record high of 1.8 bcfd on Wednesday and Thursday.

The U.S. became the world’s biggest LNG supplier in 2023, surpassing Australia and Qatar, as surging global prices fed demand for more exports, due partly to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

Gas was trading around $14 per mmBtu at both the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark in Europe and the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) benchmark in Asia.