U.S. Equities Flash Cautionary Signal for Bitcoin
By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise) It’s still early in 2025, and already we’re seeing a significant divergence between bitco
By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise) It’s still early in 2025, and already we’re seeing a significant divergence between bitco
It’s still early in 2025, and already we’re seeing a significant divergence between bitcoin and the S&P 500.
BTC is looking to secure a foothold above $100,000, and its Deribit-listed options are indicating a bullish bias. The same can’t be said of the S&P 500, which has a history of providing risk-on/off cues to risk assets, including BTC.
According to Cboe data, the SPX options skew now reflects greater downside risk than it did a year ago.
The defensive positioning in stocks perhaps stems from concerns that President-elect Donald Trump’s Jan. 20 inauguration could be a “sell-the-news” event. Risk-taking has picked up across financial markets in the past two months in anticipation of pro-corporate and pro-economy reforms under Trump’s presidency, and profit-taking cannot be ruled out.
“Broadly speaking, we see some cracks in the data and think that Trump’s inauguration later this month has a decent chance of being a ‘sell the news’ event after nearly three months of unbridled economic optimism across most sectors,” Bruce J Clark, head of rates America at Informa Connect, said on LinkedIn.
That raises the question: How will BTC react? After all, expectations of regulatory clarity under Trump have already seen the cryptocurrency rally to over $100,000 from $70,000 in just two months. A Jan. 20 broader market sell-off could pull down the dollar index and the bond yields, potentially supporting BTC.
For now, there are several factors supporting BTC. For instance, the $400 billion in liquidity sucked out of the system in the final two weeks of 2024 is likely to return, greasing asset prices, according to the LondonCryptoClub newsletter. Plus, some of the capital flows from China could find a home in cryptocurrencies.
Bitcoin is again trading at a premium on Coinbase, reflecting stronger Stateside demand while miners are expected to cut back on sales.
“The Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) for miners remains very positive, hovering around 0.5, suggesting that miners are still in a strong position, with substantial unrealized profits and a preference to hold onto their BTC at this stage,” analysts at Bitfinex told CoinDesk.
In the broader market, some traders are dabbling with December 2025 ETH calls at strikes as high as $11,000. Ether is currently trading below $4,000. Over 70 of the top 100 coins by market value were up on a 24-hour basis at press time. Need more evidence of risk-on?
That said, keep an eye on the bond market rout, which is fast spreading outside the U.S. Early today, the Japanese 10-year bond yield rose to a 13-year high while its 30-year British counterpart was on the verge of hitting the highest since the late 1990s. That can suck the wind out of risk assets. Stay alert!
Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has offloaded a stash of memecoins sent to him by various communities to fund a charity, on-chain data shows.
In the past two days, Buterin has sold $940,900 worth of lesser-known memecoins for the USDC stablecoin and ether. The NEIRO, ESTEE, MARVIN, EBULL, MSTR, and TERMINUS tokens brought in at least $57,000 worth of USDC, while other tokens were sold for less than $40,000.
Just over $916,000 was whisked away to a multisign wallet, likely tied to the charity Kanro, according to SpotOnChain.
Communities often send tokens to Buterin mainly to gain exposure and leverage his influence in the crypto space.
But Buterin’s known philanthropy also plays a role. Communities send tokens expecting him to donate them, indirectly supporting charity. Back in October, Buterin said he would donate any tokens sent to him to charitable causes, though he added that he didn’t support the act.
I appreciate all the memecoins that donate portions of their supply directly to charity.
Anything that gets sent to me gets donated to charity too (thanks moodeng! The 10B from today is going to anti-airborne-disease…
“Anything that gets sent to me gets donated to charity too (thanks moodeng!), he said. “The 10B from today is going to anti-airborne-disease tech), though I truly prefer if you guys send to charity directly, maybe even make a DAO and get your community directly engaged in the decisions and process.”
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